Here are some related thoughts on our current crises. I’m feeling more pessimistic about our country’s future than any point in my adult life. I’m not talking about some snowflake angst. I’ve deployed to combat zones 3 times and have dealt with the pressure of human lives and national security issues my entire adult life. This crisis worries me because my children have another 30-40 years of adult working life and my grandchildren have entire lives to live.

So here are some things that I think are real issues that many people either aren’t aware of or aren’t considering fully.

1. We’re in the Fourth Turning. I think Strauss and Howe were right in their book written 23 years ago. In their generational theory of history, they predicted that history cycles through turnings that occur with generations. A High starts the process after a crisis when institutions are strong, individuals are weak and society is confident. The High is followed by an Awakening in which the concept of personal freedom attacks institutions and rigidity. An Unraveling follows the Awakening. In the Unraveling, institutions are weak, distrusted and society and families atomize. Crisis follows Awakenings and those crises are most often terrible, The Civil War, WWII, our present crisis. Strauss and Howe predicted our present generational unrest 23 years ago. The pandemic timing and Trump presidency are accidental accellerants. I liken it to trying to put out a fire with a bomb. Everything gets blown up and the fire prob won’t go out.

2. We’re not close to being done with the pandemic. I can’t count how many otherwise intelligent people have asked me if this isn’t just blown out of proportion if not made up. I try to calmly tell people that SARS Cov-2 isn’t political and doesn’t care what party you belong to. It is a math problem, not a poli sci problem. We could smash this virus in a pretty rapid time-frame if we just all wore masks for a couple of months and didn’t go out when not necessary. But we have just a few more people wanting to make a point that nothing trumps their liberty (despite missing the logic of seat belts and so many other “liberty-crushing” norms they participate in…) or that they believe it is all a hoax. Despite the rapid and complete deconstruction of the “Plandemic” video, some people still reference its claims without any knowledge that it has been thoroughly discredited. Not an opposing opinion. No. Empirically discredited. That said, as long as we have a very small critical mass of people that are beyond the tipping point of pandemic spread, we will not get the infection and subsequent death rate under control.

3. Gov Tom Ridge, the first Secretary of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS) was spot on about the founding purpose of DHS. Nowhere was it envisioned to be a ministry of Interior. It was created and funded to prevent future terror attacks on the homeland from outside.  Congress needs to do their job and reopen the US Code which applies to DHS for complete revision to take internal focus and turn it outward. And those on one side of the political fight who in previous administrations waved theories of how Democratic presidents would use DHS to put down state and local rights now fully support this new internal focus and support using militarily dressed and armed federal officers to battle with protesters that largely wouldn’t be there if not for the DHS presence.

4. GOP hasn’t considered the possibility, nor mitigation strategy, that the protests aren’t fringe leftists, but but are attracting people who otherwise wouldn’t be there. President Trump may have thought he could “bait” what he considers moron liberals into protesting so that he could show law and order by busting heads, but such scenes as this weekend in Seattle morphed from a Black Lives Matter peaceful protest to a largely White response to federal presence. He doesn’t get that DHS presence has become the causal variable just as was US Forces in Baghdad were the causal variable for the insurgency. Please don’t get me wrong. We cannot accept mobs trying to burn down Federal Buildings. But there are other options available. A well-timed early phone call to a governor and mayor saying that they will be held responsible for any damage to Federal buildings in their jurisdiction can go a long way. Explain how future federal funding will be withheld or reduced by the amount necessary to rebuild after mob violence and then let the states and cities decide. It really can be that simple. If you advocate for states rights, see where the logical end takes you. This can and I think will get far far worse than they can imagine with protests growing and spreading every night gathering a LOT of people who otherwise wouldn’t protest.

4. I’m worried about what happens after the election. Not that the President won’t leave if he is defeated.  I’m talking about the fight that’s gonna happen on both ideological wings. I am really concerned that rather than forming a governing coalition, Democrats will start by calling individuals on the right to account for where they stood in last 4 years. That won’t stop with Republicans, however. I fear that, like the reign of terror in Paris after the Revolution, the executioners and commune heads will in turn be beheaded as will their beheaders. That concerns me. How long can Biden, Pelosi and Schumer hold out against that young, strong, funded and backed left wing? And will Republicans broaden their tent as they once did or will they also retreat to the wing? The result could be the opening for a third centrist party, or the balkanization into multiple smaller ones.

5. There will be a Second Great Sort. The first occurred from 20 to 10 years ago when information drove people to sort themselves into similar neighborhoods and communities by politics and socio-economic strata. That sort will now finish and cement the separations. Cities will remain blue. Some suburbs will remain or strengthen red. But many rural areas and smaller cities will go from red to purple to blue. That makes governing far harder in the future when instead of having a rough mix of ideology, race and socio-economic level with a mean somewhere down the middle, this country could balkanize hard. There won’t necessarily be a civil war, but but if there was, it wouldn’t be North vs South. It might look like a coming apart instead.

6. Watch for pressure on senior military leaders. That’ll cause many to have to dust off their Samuel Huntington, The Soldier and the State (pg 57 to be exact). Huntington says senior military leaders have three obligations to the State. 1) tell the national civilian leadership the minimum requirements for national defense. 2) give national civilian leadership different options when required, so as not to back them into a corner of only one bad option. 3) carry out the orders given you by senior civilians (President and SecDef) “no matter how distasteful they may be”. That last rule assumes lawful orders. If the demonstrations spread to other cities and continue into the autumn, DHS and even DOJ will quickly run out of agents, investigators, and shock troops. There will increasingly be discussions on sending in first the National Guard and then active duty forces. Senior military leaders WILL resist this trend. It is not inconceivable that the President will claim a coup if generals won’t obey the order they see as unlawful.

It is just the midpoint of summer. We have a long way to go in the pandemic and socio-political crisis we’re all living through. Most Americans are doing the right thing and are doing their best to make things better. We only need to see a small reduction below the tipping point of those who are out to make a point and act contrary. There is something illogical in the people who one day tout order and the primacy of laws and the next call for anarchy while decrying anarchist on the other end of the political spectrum. We really do need healing, both physically from the pandemic and socially from our balkanization. I truly hope we will see that healing soon.

Keep thinking…